Sunday
2:00 pm - 9:00 pm
Arrival and Check-in
6:00 pm - 7:00 pm
Dinner
7:30 pm - 7:40 pm
Introductory Comments by GRC Staff / Welcome and Introduction from the Chairs
7:40 pm - 9:30 pm
Prediction and Decision Support
Discussion Leader: Brian McGill (U Maine, United States)
7:40 pm - 7:50 pm
Introduction by Discussion Leader
7:50 pm - 8:25 pm
Michael Runge (USGS Eastern Ecological Science Center, United States)
"The Central role of Prediction in Decision Analysis"
8:25 pm - 8:35 pm
Discussion
8:35 pm - 9:10 pm
Carl Boettiger (UC Berkeley, United States)
"Decision-Making at the Limits of Prediction"
9:10 pm - 9:20 pm
Discussion
9:20 pm - 9:30 pm
General Discussion
Monday
7:30 am - 8:30 am
Breakfast
8:30 am - 9:00 am
Group Photo
9:00 am - 12:30 pm
Perspectives from Ecosystem Science
Discussion Leader: Shawn Leroux (Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada)
9:00 am - 9:10 am
Introduction by Discussion Leader
9:10 am - 9:45 am
Laurel Larsen (UC Berkeley, United States)
"Perspectives from Hydrology: The Use of Deep Learning and Integration of Physical Processes in Streamflow Forecasting to Get at "The Right Answers for the Right Reasons""
9:45 am - 10:00 am
Discussion
10:00 am - 10:30 am
Coffee Break
10:30 am - 11:05 am
Anna Trugman (University of California, Santa Barbara, United States)
"How do we Predict Changes in Ecosystem Composition and Structure with Climate Change if we don’t Trust Prognostic Vegetation in Dynamic Vegetation Models?"
11:05 am - 11:20 am
Discussion
11:20 am - 11:55 am
Winslow Hansen (Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, United States)
"From Trees to the Continent: Projecting 21st Century Fire, Forest Demographics, and Carbon in Western North America"
11:55 am - 12:10 pm
Discussion
12:10 pm - 12:30 pm
General Discussion
12:30 pm - 1:30 pm
Lunch
1:30 pm - 4:00 pm
Free Time
3:00 pm - 4:00 pm
The GRC Power Hour™
The GRC Power Hour™ is designed to address diversity and inclusion in the scientific workplace by providing a safe environment for informal and meaningful conversations amongst colleagues of all career stages. The program supports the professional growth of all members of our communities, including ethnicity, race and/or gender identity by providing an open forum for discussion and mentoring.
Organizers: Marie-Josée Fortin (University of Toronto, Canada) and Shannon LaDeau (Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, United States)
4:00 pm - 6:00 pm
Poster Session
6:00 pm - 7:00 pm
Dinner
7:30 pm - 9:30 pm
Predictive Modelling Techniques
Discussion Leader: Eliot McIntire (Natural Resources Canada, Canada)
7:30 pm - 7:40 pm
Introduction by Discussion Leader
7:40 pm - 8:15 pm
Vishwesha Guttal (Indian Institute of Science, India)
"Predictive Models of Ecosystems via Dynamical Systems Approach"
8:15 pm - 8:25 pm
Discussion
8:25 pm - 9:00 pm
Christina Semeniuk (University of Windsor, Canada)
"Using Agent-Based Modelling in Predictive Wildlife Ecology and Management: A 12-year Prospectus"
9:00 pm - 9:10 pm
Discussion
9:10 pm - 9:30 pm
General Discussion
Tuesday
7:30 am - 8:30 am
Breakfast
9:00 am - 12:30 pm
Complexity, Stochasticity and Limits to Predictive Ability
Discussion Leader: Korryn Bodner (Unity Health Toronto, Canada)
9:00 am - 9:10 am
Introduction by Discussion Leader
9:20 am - 9:55 am
Benjamin Blonder (University of California Berkeley, United States)
"Predicting and Prioritizing Species Coexistence"
9:55 am - 10:10 am
Discussion
10:10 am - 10:40 am
Coffee Break
10:40 am - 11:15 am
Beth Fulton (CSIRO)
"Complexity Creates Holes in Predictive Capacity, is that Really a Bad Thing?"
11:15 am - 11:30 am
Discussion
11:30 am - 12:05 pm
Serguei Saavedra (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, United States)
"Leveraging on Uncertainty to Predict the Context-dependent Behavior of Ecologicalcommunities"
12:05 pm - 12:20 pm
Discussion
12:20 pm - 12:40 pm
General Discussion
12:30 pm - 1:30 pm
Lunch
1:30 pm - 4:00 pm
Free Time
4:00 pm - 6:00 pm
Poster Session
6:00 pm - 7:00 pm
Dinner
7:30 pm - 9:30 pm
Mechanistic Versus Phenomenological Models
Discussion Leader: James Grace (U.S. Geological Survey, United States)
7:30 pm - 7:40 pm
Introduction by Discussion Leader
7:40 pm - 8:15 pm
Ryan Chisholm (National University of Singapore, Singapore)
"Modelling Tree Community Dynamics: Parsimonious Mechanistic Models Versus Highly Parameterised Phenomenological Models"
8:15 pm - 8:25 pm
Discussion
8:25 pm - 9:00 pm
Leah Johnson (Virginia Tech, United States)
"Strategic vs. Tactical Modeling Approaches to Predicting the Dynamics of Vector-borne Diseases"
9:00 pm - 9:10 pm
Discussion
9:10 pm - 9:30 pm
General Discussion
Wednesday
7:30 am - 8:30 am
Breakfast
9:00 am - 12:30 pm
Spatial and Temporal Transferability of Predictive Models
Discussion Leader: Kim Cuddington (University of Waterloo, Canada)
9:00 am - 9:10 am
Introduction by Discussion Leader
9:10 am - 9:45 am
Robert Freckleton (University of Sheffield, United Kingdom)
"Translating Model Predictions from One Place to Another"
9:45 am - 10:00 am
Discussion
10:00 am - 10:30 am
Coffee Break
10:30 am - 11:05 am
Quinn Thomas (Virginia Tech, United States)
"The NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge: Accelerating Predictive Capacities Across Ecological Systems and Scale"
11:05 am - 11:20 am
Discussion
11:20 am - 11:55 am
Michael Stemkovski (Utah State University, United States)
"Characterizing the Timescales and Consequences of Ecosystem Acclimation Lags"
11:55 am - 12:10 pm
Discussion
12:10 pm - 12:30 pm
General Discussion
12:30 pm - 1:30 pm
Lunch
1:30 pm - 4:00 pm
Free Time
4:00 pm - 6:00 pm
Poster Session
6:00 pm - 7:00 pm
Dinner
7:30 pm - 9:30 pm
Problems of Prediction at Different Scales of Time, Space and Ecological Organization
Discussion Leader: Jennifer Sunday (McGill University, Canada)
7:30 pm - 7:40 pm
Introduction by Discussion Leader
7:40 pm - 8:15 pm
Jackie Matthes (Harvard University, United States)
"Predicting the Ecosystem Impacts of Forest Insects and Pathogens"
8:15 pm - 8:25 pm
Discussion
8:25 pm - 9:00 pm
Barbara Han (Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, United States)
"The Future of SARS-CoV-2 in Ecological Communities"
9:00 pm - 9:10 pm
Discussion
9:10 pm - 9:30 pm
General Discussion
Thursday
7:30 am - 8:30 am
Breakfast
8:30 am - 9:00 am
Business Meeting
Nominations for the Next Vice Chair(s); Complete the GRC Evaluation Forms; Discuss Future Dates and Venue; Election of the Next Vice Chair(s)
9:00 am - 12:30 pm
Prediction and Causal Inference
Discussion Leaders: Laura Dee (University of Colorado, Boulder, United States)
9:00 am - 9:10 am
Introduction by Discussion Leader
9:10 am - 9:45 am
Paul Ferraro (Johns Hopkins University, United States)
"Predicting Heterogeneous Causal Effects: Blending Methods from Causal Inference, Machine Learning, and Artificial Intelligence"
9:45 am - 10:00 am
Discussion
10:00 am - 10:30 am
Coffee Break
10:30 am - 11:05 am
Alkistis Elliott-Graves (Bielefeld University)
"What is the point of Prediction?"
11:05 am - 11:20 am
Discussion
11:20 am - 11:55 am
Florian Hartig (University of Regensburg, Germany)
"Can Predictive Machine Learning Models be used for Causal Inference?"
11:55 am - 12:10 pm
Discussion
12:10 pm - 12:30 pm
General Discussion
12:30 pm - 1:30 pm
Lunch
1:30 pm - 4:00 pm
Free Time
4:00 pm - 6:00 pm
Poster Session
6:00 pm - 7:00 pm
Dinner
7:30 pm - 9:30 pm
Accelerating Research Synthesis in Predictive Ecology
Discussion Leaders: Megan Vahsen (Utah State University, United States)
7:30 pm - 7:40 pm
Introduction by Discussion Leader
7:40 pm - 8:15 pm
Michael Dietze (Boston University, United States)
"Solving the Challenge of Predicting Nature: How Close are We and how do We get there?"
8:15 pm - 8:25 pm
Discussion
8:25 pm - 9:00 pm
Christine Laney (Battelle, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), United States)
"NEON – Providing Data at Scale for Ecological Forecasting"
9:00 pm - 9:10 pm
Discussion
9:10 pm - 9:30 pm
General Discussion
Friday
7:30 am - 8:30 am
Breakfast
9:00 am
Departure