Temporal, Spatial or Phylogenetic Forecasting

Ecologists seek to understand the processes and factors affecting the distribution and abundance of living organisms and as such could have a critical role in conserving and managing natural ecosystems. However, translating ecological theory and understanding for effective ecosystem management requires quantitative prediction tools including out-of-sample prediction to verify and validate ecological models. This need for more quantitative prediction and forecasting has led to an emerging but diffuse discipline, Predictive Ecology.

Predictive ecology places prediction and forecasting at the center of both basic and applied ecology. As ecology becomes a more predictive discipline it will allow us to answer important questions such as – what of our current ecological knowledge is transferable to times and places beyond the time and place that a study was done? Are there temporal and spatial scales at which ecological processes are more or less predictable? Are there analytical techniques that lend themselves to forecasting and prediction? How does predictive ability degrade over space and time? Answers to these questions are important for basic science but more importantly, have the potential to increase the social relevance of ecological research. This conference is designed to connect and integrate the growing number of ecologists committed to establishing a more predictive discipline. Our objective is to invite a diverse group of speakers and discussion leaders at the leading edge of predictive ecology, and welcome ecologists from around the world.